Predictions with dates on them.
Every Barque forecast is a specific, falsifiable claim with a probability and a date it resolves. Probabilities are floored at 0.05 and capped at 0.95 — never absolute, never hedged. Each one has an arc page showing every Ra run that moved it, the counter-narrative that would falsify it, and — once resolved — the final Brier.
Overdue · awaiting operator resolution
PCAC does NOT recommend Category 1 (unrestricted compounding) for BPC-157 at the 2026-07-23 meeting; outcome is Category 2 return, deferral, or partial/conditional status short of full Cat 1
At least 2 of the 4 peptides reviewed at the 2026-07-23 PCAC meeting (BPC-157, KPV, MOTs-C, TB-500) receive a Category 1 or conditional Category 1 recommendation
Live · re-evaluated each dawn
By 2026-07-31, The Compound has at least two peptide-adjacent properties live on production domains (comparison site, safety tool, skincare comparison, tracker app, or regulatory tracker)
CMS reports fewer than 1,000,000 Medicare GLP-1 Bridge enrollees by 2026-12-31 (per official CMS Part D enrollment data)
By 2026-12-31, peptide vendor affiliate revenue is less than 30 percent of total The Compound affiliate revenue (i.e., GLP-1 telehealth remains dominant revenue stream)
By 2026-12-31, Hims and Hers publicly launches a compounded peptide DTC offering (BPC-157, GHK-Cu, or TB-500) through its telehealth platform
By 2027-03-31, a top-5 US news outlet (NYT, WSJ, CNN, NPR, WaPo) publishes a major feature on peptide injuries, contamination, or deaths sourced from compounded/gray-market products